source("Main.R")
##
## Attaching package: 'dplyr'
## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':
##
## filter, lag
## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
##
## intersect, setdiff, setequal, union
## Warning in eval(ei, envir): NAs introduced by coercion
## Warning in eval(ei, envir): NAs introduced by coercion
kamala_harris_data<-democratic_party_primary_polling|>filter(Candidate=="Kamala Harris")|>mutate(Poll_Boundary=ifelse(State=="NULL","Nationwide",State))
print(kamala_harris_data)
## Candidate Polling Pollster Nationwide State
## 1 Kamala Harris 33.0 Echelon Insights 1 NULL
## 2 Kamala Harris 21.0 Morning Consult 1 NULL
## 3 Kamala Harris 43.0 Morning Consult 1 NULL
## 4 Kamala Harris 41.0 Echelon Insights 1 NULL
## 5 Kamala Harris 37.0 Emerson College 1 NULL
## 6 Kamala Harris 35.0 McLaughlin & Associates 1 NULL
## 7 Kamala Harris 15.0 Capitol Weekly NULL California
## 8 Kamala Harris 36.0 Echelon Insights 1 NULL
## 9 Kamala Harris 37.0 SurveyUSA 1 NULL
## 10 Kamala Harris 33.0 Echelon Insights 1 NULL
## 11 Kamala Harris 36.0 Morning Consult 1 NULL
## 12 Kamala Harris 48.0 Overton Insights 1 NULL
## 13 Kamala Harris 28.0 Echelon Insights 1 NULL
## 14 Kamala Harris 18.0 Data For Progress 1 NULL
## 15 Kamala Harris 28.0 Yale Youth Poll 1 NULL
## 16 Kamala Harris 24.0 Atlas Intel 1 NULL
## 17 Kamala Harris 30.0 Quantus Insights 1 NULL
## 18 Kamala Harris 28.0 YouGov/The Times 1 NULL
## 19 Kamala Harris 36.0 McLaughlin & Associates 1 NULL
## 20 Kamala Harris 30.0 McLaughlin & Associates 1 NULL
## 21 Kamala Harris 33.0 McLaughlin & Associates 1 NULL
## 22 Kamala Harris 30.0 J.L. Partners 1 NULL
## 23 Kamala Harris 29.0 McLaughlin & Associates 1 NULL
## 24 Kamala Harris 16.6 Atlas Intel 1 NULL
## 25 Kamala Harris 15.3 Capitol Weekly NULL California
## 26 Kamala Harris 25.0 YouGov/Economist 1 NULL
## 27 Kamala Harris 34.0 Morning Consult 1 NULL
## 28 Kamala Harris 30.0 McLaughlin & Associates 1 NULL
## 29 Kamala Harris 26.0 co/efficient 1 NULL
## 30 Kamala Harris 13.0 Emerson College 1 NULL
## 31 Kamala Harris 32.0 Echelon Insights 1 NULL
## 32 Kamala Harris 38.0 Overton Insights 1 NULL
## 33 Kamala Harris 22.0 Rasmussen Reports 1 NULL
## 34 Kamala Harris 26.0 Echelon Insights 1 NULL
## 35 Kamala Harris 25.0 McLaughlin & Associates 1 NULL
## 36 Kamala Harris 14.5 Atlas Intel 1 NULL
## 37 Kamala Harris 12.0 Emerson College NULL North Carolina
## Sample_Size Voter_Type DMY
## 1 499 Registered Voters 2024-01-16
## 2 3997 Registered Voters 2024-05-28
## 3 1012 Registered Voters 2024-11-15
## 4 457 Likely Voters 2024-11-14
## 5 400 Registered Voters 2024-11-20
## 6 428 Likely Voters 2024-12-11
## 7 681 NULL 2025-02-06
## 8 447 Likely Voters 2025-02-10
## 9 835 Registered Voters 2025-02-13
## 10 457 Likely Voters 2025-03-10
## 11 NA Registered Voters 2025-03-14
## 12 512 Registered Voters 2025-03-24
## 13 1014 NULL 2025-04-10
## 14 745 Likely Voters 2025-04-09
## 15 NA NULL 2025-04-01
## 16 2347 NULL 2025-04-11
## 17 1000 Registered Voters 2025-04-21
## 18 1296 NULL 2025-04-22
## 19 418 Likely Voters 2025-02-11
## 20 442 Likely Voters 2025-04-24
## 21 414 Likely Voters 2025-01-22
## 22 975 Registered Voters 2025-05-13
## 23 439 Likely Voters 2025-05-21
## 24 930 NULL 2025-05-22
## 25 1122 NULL 2025-05-30
## 26 650 Registered Voters 2025-03-30
## 27 1000 Registered Voters 2025-06-13
## 28 434 Likely Voters 2025-06-10
## 29 1035 Likely Voters 2025-06-12
## 30 404 Registered Voters 2025-06-24
## 31 471 Likely Voters 2025-05-08
## 32 396 Registered Voters 2025-06-23
## 33 1229 Likely Voters 2025-06-25
## 34 505 Likely Voters 2025-07-10
## 35 444 Likely Voters 2025-07-09
## 36 1935 NULL 2025-07-13
## 37 445 Likely Voters 2025-07-28
## Link
## 1 https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1749632663122505993?s=20
## 2 https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000018f-f8f8-d844-a1ff-fffed00f0000
## 3 https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/kamala-harris-2028-democratic-primary-polling-november-2024
## 4 https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/nov-2024-verified-voter-omnibus/
## 5 https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-national-poll-trump-favorability-jumps-post-election-2028-election-kicks-off-with-harris-and-vance-leading-primaries/
## 6 https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/National-December-Presentation-RELEASE-12-17-24.pdf
## 7 https://capitolweekly.net/ca-120-dems-in-a-funk-but-harris-and-newsom-could-still-shine/
## 8 http://echelonin.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/February-2025-Voter-Omnibus-Topline-External.pdf
## 9 https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=677c71f7-f291-4d3e-800c-b2bb85f3a305
## 10 https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/march-2025-verified-voter-omnibus-2-2-2/
## 11 https://links.morningconsult.com/s/vb/1lz390XhGEbaH0JBI-kfBgI3j37keAUfilDiUXDQgYmIVQJ0MfiiXsutcRARmrW5O31nuJvpsPZkxkzeqZevGUwf7u2RIcvmy7IQFozhmy_SpgPgr5kmdsE_4c2EMoWD1etkNrKTPE939Wb_zs7LzPgZVKyFXefDShoGbg/y2DwDJIrXtRipwgN998cnZgGR1frvEEM/7
## 12 https://overtoninsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Overton-Insights-Poll-April-2025-Crosstabs-Party-Ideology-2024-Vote-1.pdf
## 13 https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/april-2025-verified-voter-omnibus-2-2-2-2/
## 14 https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2025/4/dfp_zeteo_d_primary_2028.pdf
## 15 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JhSWPVcKK6tdufsa52TeRk3JRwSsgtglVQP1ZAa8fg4/edit?gid=0#gid=0
## 16 https://cdn.atlasintel.org/e3edc86b-aac7-4ebe-9ef7-6a8346f658f6.pdf?_gl=1*1po007n*_ga*NjMxOTI2NjYxLjE3NDQ5Mjc1MzM.*_ga_W78QD5CNP1*MTc0NDkyNzUzMy4xLjAuMTc0NDkyNzUzMy4wLjAuMA
## 17 https://quantusinsights.org/f/split-nation-unready-party-the-strategic-drift-of-2025
## 18 https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/times_20250425.pdf
## 19 https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/National-February-Presentation-RELEASE-02-18-25.pdf
## 20 https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/National-April-Presentation-RELEASE-04-29-25.pdf
## 21 https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/National-January-Presentation-RELEASE-01-28-25.pdf
## 22 https://nypost.com/2025/05/16/us-news/jd-vance-clear-favorite-to-win-the-gop-nomination-in-2028-poll/?utm_campaign=nypost&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
## 23 https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/National-May-Presentation-RELEASE-05-27-25.pdf
## 24 https://cdn.atlasintel.org/20c89f8f-d65e-4991-a491-388ae96986c9.pdf
## 25 https://capitolweekly.net/for-california-dems-will-the-past-be-prologue/
## 26 https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econtoplines_S1a74K0.pdf
## 27 https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/2028-democratic-primary-gavin-newsom-polling-june-2025
## 28 https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/National-June-Presentation-RELEASE-6-16-25.pdf
## 29 https://coefficient.org/national-ice-protests-study/
## 30 https://emersoncollegepolling.com/june-national-poll/
## 31 https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/may-2025-verified-voter-omnibus-2-2-2-2-2/
## 32 https://overtoninsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/July-2025-Poll.pdf
## 33 https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration_second_term/harris_2028_former_vp_still_leads_democratic_field
## 34 https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/july-2025-verified-voter-omnibus-2-2-2-2-2-2-2/
## 35 https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/National-July-Presentation-RELEASE-07-15-25.pdf
## 36 https://atlasintel.org/poll/usa-national-2025-07-18
## 37 https://emersoncollegepolling.com/north-carolina-2026-poll-cooper-starts-us-senate-race-with-six-point-lead-and-clear-name-recognition-advantage-over-whatley/
## Poll_Boundary
## 1 Nationwide
## 2 Nationwide
## 3 Nationwide
## 4 Nationwide
## 5 Nationwide
## 6 Nationwide
## 7 California
## 8 Nationwide
## 9 Nationwide
## 10 Nationwide
## 11 Nationwide
## 12 Nationwide
## 13 Nationwide
## 14 Nationwide
## 15 Nationwide
## 16 Nationwide
## 17 Nationwide
## 18 Nationwide
## 19 Nationwide
## 20 Nationwide
## 21 Nationwide
## 22 Nationwide
## 23 Nationwide
## 24 Nationwide
## 25 California
## 26 Nationwide
## 27 Nationwide
## 28 Nationwide
## 29 Nationwide
## 30 Nationwide
## 31 Nationwide
## 32 Nationwide
## 33 Nationwide
## 34 Nationwide
## 35 Nationwide
## 36 Nationwide
## 37 North Carolina
kamala_harris_chart<-kamala_harris_data|>ggplot(aes(x=DMY,y=Polling,color=Poll_Boundary)) + geom_point(alpha=0.6) + theme_gray(base_size=14)+geom_line() +scale_x_date(date_breaks="3 months") + labs(title="Kamala Harris",x="Date",Y="Polling (%)")
kamala_harris_chart
kamala_harris_summary<-kamala_harris_data|>summarise(avg_polling=round(mean(Polling),digits=2),weighted_avg_polling=round(sum(Polling * Sample_Size/(sum(Sample_Size,na.rm=TRUE)),na.rm=TRUE),digits=2),
standard_deviation=round(sd(Polling),digits=2),maximum_polling=max(Polling),minimum_polling=min(Polling),median_polling=median(Polling))
print(kamala_harris_summary)
## avg_polling weighted_avg_polling standard_deviation maximum_polling
## 1 28.61 26.18 8.78 48
## minimum_polling median_polling
## 1 12 30